22 Dec 2023

How big are Donald Trump's legal problems?

9:25 am on 22 December 2023

By Gareth Evans, for the BBC

Former US president Donald Trump in court during his civil fraud trial at New York State Supreme Court on 6 November 2023 in New York City.

Donald Trump in court during his civil fraud trial at New York State Supreme Court on 6 November 2023 in New York City. Photo: AFP / Getty Images / Pool

Donald Trump has been criminally indicted four times, and will have a series of trials to attend in 2024 as he runs again for the White House.

His candidacy now also faces a challenge from the Colorado Supreme Court, which has ruled Mr Trump cannot run for president because he engaged in an insurrection with his actions in the days leading to the US Capitol riot on 6 January 2021.

Here's a guide to the five cases and what they could mean for the former president and current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.

14th Amendment: What are the arguments?

The Colorado Supreme Court declared Trump ineligible for the presidency under the US Constitution's insurrection clause - Section 3 of the 14th Amendment - which disqualifies anyone who engages in insurrection from holding office.

Voting 4-3, the state's top court found Trump had incited an insurrection in his role in the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol by his supporters. Mr Trump has repeatedly denied responsibility for the riot.

The bombshell ruling directs the Colorado secretary of state to exclude Trump from the state's Republican primary on 5 March, where registered party members vote on their preferred candidate for president. But it could also affect the general election in Colorado next November.

It does not stop Trump running in other states.

Similar lawsuits to to remove the Republican from the ballot in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan have failed.

What will his defence be?

During a one-week trial in Colorado in November, the former president's lawyers argued Trump should not be disqualified because he did not bear responsibility for the riot.

Following the Colorado Supreme Court's decision Trump's campaign said immediately it would appeal the decision to the US Supreme Court, where it's likely a similar argument would be made.

His legal spokeswoman Alina Habba said the ruling "attacks the very heart of this nation's democracy."

"It will not stand, and we trust that the Supreme Court will reverse this unconstitutional order," she said.

What happens next?

The Colorado Supreme Court put its ruling on hold until at least 4 January. If Trump appeals, that pause will continue until the country's top court weighs in.

If the Supreme Court does take up the case, which experts say is likely, it could be forced to decide Trump's eligibility beyond Colorado to all 50 states.

That court has a 6-3 conservative majority with three justices appointed by the former president himself.

This handout image released by the Fulton County Sheriff's Office on August 24, 2023 shows the booking photo of former US President Donald Trump.

The Georgia investigation saw the first ever mugshot of a former US president after Donald Trump turned himself in at the Fulton County Jail on 24 August Photo: AFP / Fulton County Sheriff's Office

Georgia 2020 election investigation: What are the charges?

This is the most recent indictment, the one that saw the first ever mugshot of a former US president after Donald Trump turned himself in at the Fulton County Jail on 24 August. The charges for Trump - listed now as inmate no. P01135809 on Fulton County Jail records - were unsealed last month.

Trump and 18 others are named in a 41-count indictment for alleged attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.

The investigation was sparked in part by a leaked phone call in which the former president asked Georgia's top election official to "find 11,780 votes".

Trump was hit with 13 criminal counts including an alleged violation of Georgia's Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (Rico).

His other charges include solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer, conspiring to commit impersonating a public officer, conspiring to commit forgery, conspiring to commit false statements, and writing and conspiring to file false documents.

What are the potential penalties?

The racketeering charge, which is mostly used in organised crime cases, carries a maximum 20-year jail sentence.

Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis would need to prove that there was a pattern of corruption from Trump and his allies aimed at overturning the election result in order to bring a conviction.

As for making false statements, that carries a penalty of between one to five years in prison or a fine.

And a person convicted of first-degree criminal solicitation to commit election fraud will face between one to three years in jail.

What will his defence be?

Trump has repeatedly denied wrongdoing in the case and has entered a plea of not guilty.

He has defended the phone call in question as "perfect" and accused Ms Willis of launching a politically motivated inquiry.

There is no confirmed date for the trial yet.

A man calls on people to raid the building as Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol building in Washington, DC on January 6, 2021.

Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol building in Washington, DC on 6 January 2021. Photo: AFP

Capitol riot and 202 election: What are the charges?

Donald Trump has been criminally charged in a separate federal investigation into efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election.

The 45-page indictment contains four counts: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.

They stem from the former president's actions in the wake of the 2020 election, including around the 6 January Capitol riot, which occurred while Congress was meeting to certify Joe Biden's victory.

What are the potential penalties?

Penalties for these charges include:

  • Conspiracy to defraud the US is punishable by a fine or up to five years in prison
  • Obstructing an official proceeding is punishable by a fine or up to 20 years in prison
  • Conspiracy against rights is punishable by a fine or not more than 10 years in prison, or both

But there are logistical, security and political questions around whether Mr Trump would serve time even if charged and convicted.

What will his defence be?

Trump was formally charged in court in Washington DC on 3 August. A tentative trial date is scheduled for 4 March 2024.

He argues that the charges are an attempt to prevent him from winning the 2024 presidential election. Before leaving Washington after his arraignment hearing, he told journalists the case "is a persecution of a political opponent".

Trump has repeatedly denied responsibility for the riot on 6 January 2021.

His legal team is also likely to argue that the former president is not directly responsible for the violence that unfolded that day because he told supporters to march "peacefully" on the Capitol and is protected by First Amendment free speech rights.

A supporter of former US President Donald Trump outside the E. Barrett Prettyman US Courthouse in Washington, DC, on 3 August, 2023, ahead of Trump's arraignment.

A supporter of former US President Donald Trump outside the E. Barrett Prettyman US Courthouse in Washington, DC, on 3 August, 2023 Photo: AFP

Classified documents case: What are the charges

Trump is facing 40 criminal charges over his alleged mishandling of classified material after he left the White House.

Thousands of documents were seized in an FBI search at his Florida estate Mar-a-Lago last year, including about 100 that were marked as classified.

The charges are related to both his handling of the documents and his alleged efforts to obstruct the FBI's attempts to retrieve them.

The majority of the counts, are for the wilful retention of national defence information, which falls under the Espionage Act.

There are then eight individual counts which include conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record and making false statements.

Will Donald Trump go to jail?

These charges could - in theory - lead to substantial prison time if Trump is convicted.

But the logistics, security and politics of jailing a former president mean a conventional prison sentence is seen as unlikely by many experts.

Looking at the letter of the law, the counts under the Espionage Act, for example, each carry a maximum sentence of 10 years.

Other counts, related to conspiracy and withholding or concealing documents, each carry maximum sentences of 20 years.

Counts relating to a scheme to conceal, and false statements and representations carry sentences of five years each.

But while there is no doubt the charges are serious, many questions remain unanswered about the potential penalties should he be convicted.

What will his defence be?

Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and the trial is set to begin on 20 May 2024.

The former president has offered shifting defences for the material found at his property, mostly arguing that he declassified it. No evidence has been provided that this was possible or is true.

His lawyers may argue in court that Mr Trump was unfairly targeted and that other politicians, namely Hillary Clinton, Mike Pence and current President Joe Biden, were never charged for their handling of classified documents.

But experts say the former president's case is different in a number of ways. For one, other politicians were willing to return whatever documents they had, while prosecutors allege Trump resisted.

Trump is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.

The charges stem from a hush-money payment made before the 2016 election to the adult film star Stormy Daniels, who says she had an adulterous affair with Mr Trump.

While such a payment is not illegal, spending money to help a presidential campaign but not disclosing it violates federal campaign finance law.

What are the potential penalties?

Each of the charges carries a maximum of four years in prison, although a judge could sentence Trump to probation if he is convicted.

Legal experts have told BBC News they think it is unlikely Trump will be jailed if convicted in this case and a fine is the more likely outcome.

What will his defence be?

Trump has pleaded not guilty and is due to stand trial in the case on 25 March 2024.

He denies ever having sexual relations with Daniels and says the payment was made to protect his family from false allegations, not to sway the election.

- This story was first published by the BBC

Get the RNZ app

for ad-free news and current affairs