8 Nov 2018

Cloudy with a chance of catastrophe: briefing MPs on climate risks

From The House , 6:55 pm on 8 November 2018

When they’re not reviewing hopeful legislation, holding inquiries, examining treaties or considering petitions - Parliament’s Select Committees try to keep themselves abreast of their specialist areas by asking for briefings from experts. 

 

So, this week for example, the Economic Development, Science and Innovation Committee received briefings on variable weather patterns from both NIWA and the Met Service.

Rob Bell, Principal Scientist and Programme Leader for Hazard Impacts and Risk at NIWA

Rob Bell, NIWA Principal Scientist and Programme Leader for Hazard Impacts and Risk Photo: VNP / Phil Smith

 

They heard about risk assessments, floods, droughts, sea level rise and subsidence. And at least one parochial local heard with interest that Auckland has more extreme wind events than does Wellington. Apparently that's physically possible.

 

Rob Bell, NIWA's Principal Scientist and Programme Leader for Hazard Impacts and Risk fronted their briefing. Among many topics traversed he talked about work they have been doing to try to map just how many properties are at risk from inundation (areas up to 50cms above the mean high water mark).

 

"We're talking about 13,000 buildings... 2.3 billion dollars of replacement cost of buildings, and 924kms of road, of which 65% is in the Waikato and Coromandel," said Mr Bell.

 

In insurance terms the biggest threat to New Zealand is flooding, but in economic impact drought is also a monstrous risk. NIWA has done work with Victoria University’s Climate Change Research Institute as to how much influence climate change has had on recent climate disasters. Rob Bell outlined the results.

 

"Of those flood events, it ranges between 5% and 40% of the rainfall events in the last decade have that contribution from climate change; whereas drought is more around 15% to 20%."

 

The climate change impact in monetary terms for those events was "$120 million extra for insured damages for floods, and $720 million for economic losses from droughts."

Mr Bell told the committee that "increasing risk is the new norm".  Looking to the future he said "in my opinion we need a paradigm shift to manage that risk."

He said that intensive development was still occurring in risk zones and we needed to decide whether we should continue to keep returning and repairing damage to high risk areas, or instead and adapt and move.