Photo:
The Ministry of Education estimates there will be more than enough primary school teachers next year and probably enough secondary teachers.
The annual teacher supply forecast showed immigration was driving demand for teachers.
It comes amid warnings from secondary principals about teacher shortages and figures showing the number of foreign teachers and teachers over the age of 65 were at an all-time high while student teacher numbers had plummeted.
The forecast said the number of primary teachers required by state and state integrated schools would fall next year and beyond while the number of secondary teachers required would increase for several years before falling.
It said there would be more than enough primary school teachers in each of the next three years even if initiatives attracting people to the profession were relatively unsuccessful.
The forecast said in a "low supply" scenario there would be 593 more primary teachers than the 36,416 required next year and in a "high supply" scenario there would be 919.
By 2026 the number of excess primary teachers would range from 1217 to 1977.
The ministry said secondary schools would need 26,080 teachers next year.
It said schools could be short 227 teachers if recruitment initiatives went badly, but it was more likely they would have an oversupply of 173-327.
By 2026 could be short 679 teachers under a low supply scenario or have 350 teachers more than required under a high supply scenario.
The report said the actual supply of secondary teachers this year was about the middle level of what the ministry had forecast in 2022 for 2023.
However, the ministry said shortages were likely to continue in subjects including maths, science, technology and te reo Māori, and in schools that were hard to staff due to their location.
The report said immigration added 7453 children to secondary school rolls this year and about 9675 to primary school rolls.
Last month principals told RNZ the influx of children whose parents had work or residence visas for New Zealand had caught them by surprise.
