13 Nov 2022

All Blacks: End of year tour taking a different complexion

1:03 pm on 13 November 2022
Aaron Smith scores his first try against Wales in Cardiff.

Aaron Smith scores a try against Wales during a surprisingly easy victory for the All Blacks. Photo: Photosport

Comment: Ian Foster's constant theme of getting the All Blacks back on track and achieving consistency may finally be answered in the last two tests of the year.

It's been a strange week with the All Blacks in an unusually sunny Edinburgh.

The reception for the team has been about as much as is anticipated whenever they play an away fixture, but you can definitely sense that even from the other side of the world, they're not the most important rugby game on this weekend.

The test match against Scotland at Murrayfield will beam in at the ungodly time slot of 3.30am on Monday, about as bad as it gets for New Zealand viewers.

The only good thing about it from an NZ Rugby point of view is that it certainly gives some context around the lack of control they wield regarding kick off times, which might dampen some of the hysteria around the clash with the Black Ferns a fortnight ago (although it almost certainly won't).

It's fair to say the complexion of the tour has changed a bit since last weekend, and not just because of the comprehensive win over Wales.

A lot of credit should be given to the All Blacks and their planning for that game, as they identified key areas of weakness in the Welsh and exploited them, but while they're running into a patch of form and therefore much-needed consistency the spotlight must go on their remaining two opponents for the year.

2022 Autumn Nations Series, Principality Stadium, Cardiff, Wales 5/11/2022, Wales vs New Zealand. Wales’ Tomos Williams tackles Dalton Papali'i of New Zealand.

The All Blacks identified key areas of weakness in the Welsh team, Jamie Wall writes. Photo: Photosport/ INPHO - Billy Stickland

Scotland blew a golden opportunity to beat the Wallabies two weeks ago and then didn't exactly set the world on fire against Fiji on Saturday.

The Fijians played exactly the way anyone thought they would, tossing the ball around despite the damp conditions, which the Scots struggled at times to contain. That's a worry for the upcoming challenge against what will presumably be a far more composed All Black side, who didn't even need to spread the ball wide to put 55 points on Wales.

Then there's the form of the opponent for what was looking to be perhaps the All Blacks' biggest test of the year, against England at Twickenham. England have kicked off their autumn campaign with a loss to Argentina and have come in for some heavy criticism from their press and fans, with complaints they look listless and uninspired.

While it's fair to point out that New Zealanders shouldn't be in any position to judge a team that loses to Los Pumas at home, things do feel very different from where the All Blacks were back in August. The better comparison would be to look back to this time last year, when things were quite eerily similar, at least on paper.

Emiliano Boffelli of Argentina

The Pumas have beaten both the All Blacks and England on each side's home turf this season. Photo: PHOTOSPORT

The end of year tour in 2021 saw the All Blacks thump Wales in Cardiff by almost the exact same scoreline as last weekend, which led into two losses against Ireland and France.

Scotland and England, at least on current form, aren't really looking like the same challenge even though the Scots will be tougher than Wales. The current way the All Blacks are playing makes them more of a favourite than pre-tour predictions suggested.

Does the close scrape against Japan count? In Ian Foster's total body of work, yes, but in the context of the tour probably not if the next two weeks reap two more wins. That was very much an experimental side, almost obligational with some of the selections.

Foster has made seven changes, which might seem like tempting fate, but one is a very long in the making debut for Mark Telea and the other a start for Finlay Christie inside his usual Blues partner of Beauden Barrett. So while the roster has been reshuffled, this does still feel like a business as usual assignment.

Last year's tour was very much seen as a dry run for a World Cup campaign - a long time away from home, with gradually more difficult test matches played with plenty riding on them. This one could be seen in the same way, the step up from Wales to Scotland to England will be incremental, but right now not as punishing as what they faced in 2021.

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