31 Mar 2022

Labour shortage critical - Shamubeel Eaqub's analysis

From Checkpoint, 5:35 pm on 31 March 2022

The labour shortage is not just tight, it's critical, according to new data out today.

The report by Sense Partners for BusinessNZ shows in most parts of the country, including the entire South Island, there is only one able worker for every two jobs advertised.

The report also signals once the border reopens New Zealand will be playing catch-up in a global warfare for talent.

Sense Partners financial analyst Shamubeel Eaqub told Checkpoint every type of business - retail, trades, logistics, mechanics - was crying out for workers.

"The challenge for these businesses is there is so much demand but this simply can't meet it."

It came down to a couple of reasons, he said.

"We've had a very strong economy, so there is a lot of demand. People are still spending money.

"And at the same time, we've had very little growth in the population which we have normally relied on through immigration."

He said unemployment was low and if the country wanted to move away from overseas talent, then education and training programmes needed to be funded.

"People who are studying, who are not in work ... is near historic lows. We want to see more people in in study because that gives you the skills and education to be able to get good jobs going forward."

He said the reason was because people were able to find work and New Zealand dodged an economic recession which usually pushed people towards study.

"I do have some concerns around how are we going to build a pipeline of talent if our education system is not creating these future talents and future workers for our businesses?"

Eaqub said if businesses should focus on retaining staff.

"I think businesses would be foolish to let their staff go.

"...give them better pay, better working conditions ... satisfaction at work, career opportunities, development opportunities - the soft stuff that's hard to quantify."

He said data showed wages were rising fast.

"Already in February, we've been rising at about 8 percent compared to this time last year. Those are pretty big rates.

"Over the course of this year, we expect to see wage inflation picking up a lot and many businesses will be able to afford it ... because prices are rising, there is a lot of demand and that lets them increase prices as well as increase their costs."

He said labour shortages would get worse when young New Zealanders left for their OE and immigrations would help rebalance it.