Transcript
ANNA POWLES: There has been a strong concern and strong strategic anxiety over the past few years about China's increasing influence in the Pacific and that has really culminated this year. As you will recall there was a flurry of concern about the establishment of a potential dual use port at Luganville in Vanuatu that would give the Chinese PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) critical access to key strategic, at this point, close to Australia. And even though the allegations were denied by the Vanuatu government and Canberra's approach to the issue, very much a strong sort of foghorn diplomacy approach, frustrated Pacific leaders. It really did demonstrate the growing strategic concern in Canberra and in Washington and increasing probably in Wellington as well, about Chinese influence in the Pacific and concerns that the Pacific could become a part of a so-called sinosphere that could potentially isolate Australia and other traditional partners.
KORO VAKA'UTA: How close is this to eventuating, to actually happening? Because we have heard the talk, no one is confirming it officially, neither Scott Morrison or the Defence Minister Pyne and we have had former PNG military commander Jerry Singirok say there needs to be more consultation about this. How close could this happen or how soon could this happen?
AP: Well I understand from media reports that conversations were had in July in Brisbane between the former Australian Prime MInister Malcolm Turnbull and PNG's Prime Minster Peter O'Neill and a defence partnership agreement was signed then. Australia then undertook an assessment of Lombrum Naval base on Manus Island and then have proceeded to commission a five million dollar upgrade of the naval base. Christopher Pyne has said that the upgrade of the naval base is to support safe and secure berthing of the four new patrol boats that PNG will receive under the Australia Pacific Maritime Programme but there is a strong indication, both from the Australian government and what US officials have been saying, that they would like to see a stronger Australia and US naval base there as well as training and potentially expanding that out as well. This comes out of concern that China was looking at establishing port facilities in PNG, at four ports actually, Manus being one and another three and Manus being of the most strategic concern to Australia. The trajectory in which this is going will likely see this play out.
KV: The strategic importance of PNG and the location is obvious there but in terms of Papua New Guinea itself, the plus-minus of such a move, as I mentioned, Jerry Singirok has come out saying there needs to be a bit of caution around this and his quote was that Australia had neglected PNG for a long time and placing military personnel in the country might not be the best approach. What are the pros and cons to this for PNG?
AP: I think that Jerry Singirok makes an incredibly valid point and of course he had a critical role to play back in the Bougainville crisis and the Sandline issue that up then. He is well versed in responding to these issues around external interests in PNG. Now in terms of what are the pluses and minuses for PNG. Prime Minister O'Neill has made it very clear in statements that he sees competition between China and other partners such as Australia and others as being healthy and of benefit to PNG. Given that this is coming right before APEC and they're wanting to make the announcement at APEC, potentially before the meeting between President Xi Jinping and the Pacific leaders which takes place two days prior to APEC commencing. So there is a real sense of wanting to capitalise on the APEC event. From the PNG perspective it does raise a number of concerns though around whether or not there is strong grassroots support and by grassroots I mean even throughout the government, the support for a returning Australia-US military presence in PNG and what the implications of that are. PNG has a very strong relationship with China. It's likely to sign a free trade agreement with China. It has signed up to the Belt and Road initiative. China has been a key partner in making APEC happen and has committed to a significant amount of loans and has very vividly demonstrated its presence and relationship with PNG. I would be very concerned though that this is moving towards greater militarisation, this very security-driven agenda that's coming out of Canberra actually contradicts the push for demilitarisation within the Pacific. That is a very strong theme within the region. It also challenges the fact that for the Pacific island countries the single greatest threat is climate change, it is not China. From a strategic calculation perspective one would have to ask is the objective which is to establish a military base to serve as a counterweight for Chinese influence in the region. Will that actually be effectual? In the first part. Will it strengthen and deepen Australia's relationship with PNG and the rest of the Pacific and is this actually of benefit to the Pacific?
