27 Mar 2022

How the math is starting to stack up against Russia

From Sunday Morning, 8:40 am on 27 March 2022

The math, as they say, appears to be stacking up against the Russian forces - both physically and emotionally - as the invasion of Ukraine rolls into its second month. Dr Dmitry Gorenburg is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. He says the bulk of the Russian troops were not prepared for the invasion to start with, let alone the resistance they would encounter from the dogged Ukrainian forces and the casualties that would continue to mount. On the question of whether the Russians are likely to use nuclear weapons, Dr Gorenburg says it is unlikely unless it was a situation where they were really cornered, pointing out that they are not really a sensible weapon to use if your own forces - or population - are nearby. He joins the show to discuss the situation in Ukraine and why it's likely that this confrontation will potentially last for some years.

Image grab from file footage of Ukrainian army battling Russian-backed forces in Donbas (Donbass) war zone in eastern Ukraine. Russia launches military operation in Donbass region and invades multiple Ukrainian cities on Thursday Feb 24, 2022.

Photo: AFP